GMI News April 8, 2016
...(#4)...Odds to Collect the Federal Tax Credit
Unless the U.S. Congress grants an extension, the three biggest plug-in electrified vehicle (PEV) sellers in the U.S. – GM, Nissan, and Tesla – are approaching a 200,000 unit cap per manufacturer in the next couple of years or so. After that, the $7,500 potential benefit starts to fade, being cut to $3,750 for two quarters, then $1,875 for two quarters, then zero.
Between Tesla and GM, the Bolt will benefit by being first on sale. By the beginning of 2017 when Bolt sales are beginning, it’s estimated GM may have used about 123,000-130,000 federal credits, based on PEV sales projections by analyst Alan Baum plus known sales to date.
This could mean GM – splitting sales with Volt and Bolt and possibly other PEVs – may be able to sell only 30,000-50,000 Bolts eligible for the full $7,500 federal credit, depending on how things actually go – but Tesla buyers may be no better off.
Through March, Tesla has sold an estimated 71,610 units out of its 200,000. With Tesla’s 2016 guidance seeing an aggressive stretch goal of Model X and Model S sales, the company wants to increase global deliveries from under 52,000 last year to 80,000-90,000 or so this year.
If Tesla’s U.S. sales this year grow commensurately, that could mean somewhere in the low 40,000 range give or take a few thousand. Assuming continued growth for 2017, by end of that year when the Model 3 is projected, Tesla could have 40,000 more or less credits to split between the Model S, X and Model 3. Assuming Tesla is not late to production, odds are that fewer than 25,000 Model 3 buyers will get the full $7,500 credit before it tapers to half and half again for four quarters after the 200,000 is hit.