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Large car market withering away... will it survive?

6K views 15 replies 10 participants last post by  wingsnut 
#1 ·
More support for Ford's Super Segment

To look at automakers' lineups these days, it would appear that America's large car market is enjoying something of a resurgence. After all, Chevrolet has invested in a new Impala, Toyota has its new Avalon, Hyundai fielded an all-new Azera for 2012, and Nissan is presently working on a next-generation Maxima.

Yet, according to the industry forecasters at Polk, the market for mainstream big sedans is cratering. According to Polk's data, the large mainstream sedan segment has plunged from a 5.8-percent share of the US car market in 2008 to just 3.5 percent in 2012. That sales drop is enough to put this most American of car bodystyles behind the minivan segment, a market whose own sales slide has been comparatively well documented.

According to Polk, part of the reason for the shift is America's increasing appetite for smaller and more efficient vehicles, along with increased automaker emphasis on the midsize sedan segment, where more frequent redesigns and new technologies are becoming commonplace. In fact, Polk hypothesizes that at some point, family sedans like the Ford Fusion and Honda Accord may be subject to "re-definition" as America's largest non-luxury automobiles.

Despite the grim outlook, the firm's analysts believe that the "large car category will survive in the near term" thanks to forthcoming entries like the Chevrolet SS, Kia Cadenza and Volkswagen Phaeton, which Polk expects to return in 2015. On the premium side of the street, the picture looks somewhat better, with the number of big luxury players staying pretty much the same. Even so, sales of cars in the class from automakers like BMW and Mercedes-Benz has slipped from .76-percent to .46-percent of the total US sales market.

This is the complete article. However, here's a link:

http://www.autoblog.com/2013/03/24/large-car-market-withering-away-will-it-survive/
 
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#2 ·
Further support for my comment that the full size car in non-luxury form is a dying breed. Gas prices are not coming down, so the size of the average vehicle sold will. The previous post about the killing of the Taurus makes perfect sense as the volume in that segment will make it virtually impossible to make a decent return. Ford instead focusing on only a Lincoln, hopefully rear drive, for the luxury full size is spot on IMO. I will be surprised to see a next gen Taurus, sad as that may be.
 
#4 ·
When one looks at the interior space of the new Fusion vs the Taurus it's difficult to justify the Taurus unless you need the additional trunk space. In that case other options may make more sense.
or want a v6...

actually
the automotive definition of "large" has changed
in the good old days, 200" ovl was midsize & iirc 220" was "standard size", large would've been 240" (or more?)
imho
to a lot of people, a 190" modern "midsizer" has been "family size" for a long time already
&
imho2, the coming family size will become close to 180" ovl (coincidentally, a size FoMoCo currently doesn't have)
 
#5 ·
I don't believe the definitions based on EPA interior volume have changed, IIRC. Exterior packaging and what the marketing department can sell is a different story. As to the 180' dimension, the Focus sedan is 178.5' and on the small end of the EPA compact scale, IIRC.
 
#6 ·
I have to think that a big part of it is that the manufacturers other than Chrysler have all but ignored this segment for far too long. Ford did nothing with the Crown Vic, Marquis, and Town Car while the Impala, Lucerne, and DTS died on the vine as well. As for the comments about the latest Taurus, I have to agree; it's just not that much bigger inside than the Fusion, which is much better looking. The cockpit design of the Taurus looks good but feels really snug. The Fusion is much more open and spacious feeling. Ford needs to have a fullsize car with more room. These issues affect the MKS too.
 
#7 ·
I don't believe the definitions based on EPA interior volume have changed, IIRC. Exterior packaging and what the marketing department can sell is a different story. As to the 180' dimension, the Focus sedan is 178.5' and on the small end of the EPA compact scale, IIRC.
The Focus now is similar in length to the old Tempo. Nothing against the Focus, but the Tempo seemed to have more headroom and legroom, plus have a more open feel to the interior. Same thing with the old subcompact Escort vs the new subcompact Fiesta.
 
#8 ·
The Focus has approximately 2" of additional shoulder room vs the Fiesta and feels more claustrophobic due to the dash. I agree, Ford needs to do a better job of packaging in order to get more space in some of models. GM seems to have done a much better packaging job with the Cruze than Ford did with the Focus.
 
#9 ·
Funny how the Lincoln Versailles was considered a "compact luxury car" when introduced.

The Chrysler K-Cars (Dodge Aries/400, Plymouth Reliant, Chrysler Lebaron) were all classified as 6 passenger vehicles at 176 inches long.

Cars were designed for interior room back in the '80's where today's look is more about the swoopy exterior design. That's why some cars today do not have as much interior space as they should.
 
#10 ·
^ imho the firstgen Fusion-MILAN-MKZ had better interior packaging despite their tiny wheelbases
seems space-efficiency is not a "core value" at FoMoCo


I don't believe the definitions based on EPA interior volume have changed, IIRC. Exterior packaging and what the marketing department can sell is a different story. As to the 180' dimension, the Focus sedan is 178.5' and on the small end of the EPA compact scale, IIRC.
& without a trunk, the Focus (hatch) is 171.6"
I loved the C3 Focus in pix** ..... then eventually I sat in one
The interior has HORRIBLE space management!!
specifically:
-- a dash that protrudes on the passenger side &
-- NO rear foot room *rear structure protruding from the base of the rear seat, making exiting difficult to impossible, *completely forgot to have designers wear size 14 shoes when making the lower structure of the frontseats, & *the THICKEST front seatbacks I can ever recall seeing in a compact, *PLUS monolithic back of frontseat facing the rear passenger KILLING any knee-wiggleroom
...I'm more comfortable in a FIESTA (except for width/shoulder room)

the Cruze didn't have the room problems for me - tho doesn't appeal to me
the Verano is much better, except for the cheap-glizt in its interior trimming (plastiChrome)


** was supposed to eventually be my next car...in Mercury form of course
 
#11 ·
Funny how the Lincoln Versailles was considered a "compact luxury car" when introduced...

Cars were designed for interior room back in the '80's where today's look is more about the swoopy exterior design. That's why some cars today do not have as much interior space as they should.
That Versailles was the length of a Taurus, almost as wide and weighed over 3800 pounds. Of course at the same time a Lincoln sedan was 233" long. I suspect part of the interior space loss is due to the structure required to meet current and future crash standards
 
#13 ·
The change in the market was the SUV. In olden times, families had to cram 4 or 5 kids in a huge sedan or station wagon to haul them around. The Crown Victoria in it's glory days of 79k in 2002 had a steady decline until it's end in 2012 at 4k units.

But decay was not what killed the full size Crown Victoria, it was the midsize SUV. Once the Explorer hit the ground it was a sales sensation. In 2002 Ford sold over 433k units. So no longer did families have to be crammed into a large sedan or station wagon. But as gas prices increased, Explorer sales declined to a low of 52k in 2009. In 2010 sales started to climb again, and with the redesign in 2011 sales jumped to 135k, with 2012 sales at 164k.

While at the same time the midsize Ford Taurus sold over 300k units until 2006 when sales dropped to 84k.

But that's more because in 2005, Ford launched the midsize Fusion that competed directly with the Taurus, selling just 16k in it's first year. But in 2006 sales jumped to 146k, picking up many of the Taurus downsize consumers that did not move to the Explorer or Camry/Accord. Fusion sales continued to climb year after year until a high of 248k in 2011.

But in 2010 after a redesign, the larger Taurus sales begin to climb from a low of 45k in 2009 to 68k in 2010, with the most recent sales high of 74k in 2012. But with a new 2013 even larger Fusion, the Taurus once again is in competition with it's own sibling..

Toyota Avalon sales at a high in 2002 of 69k, started a steady decline to a low of 26k in 2009. Climbing back up to 29k in 2012.

So it looks like over time, the full size car consumer have transitioned into the automotive sweet spot, midsize cars and suvs that have grown to match a full size based on interior space.

But unlike the Impala and Avalon that maintain a midsize interior(112in wheelbase) and larger full size exterior, the new Taurus is expected to offer a larger full size interior(114-116 wheelbase) along with a full size exterior. So while the older Camry buyer moves to an Avalon, Ford will be able to attract younger and older actual full size car buyers with more interior space expected in a full size sedan.
 
#16 ·
In other news Fiat with the 300, Charger, Ghibli, and Quattroporte continues to absolutely print money every time a large sedan is purchased in the US, and abroad.


What does that list all have in common?

They don't sell a fraction of the CUV/SUV options that Ford sells, so sedan sales are commensurate with that fact.

And guess which makes more profit?


Believe it.


oh and one more thing.....cough-cough......Taurus is feeling left out of your intended Ford diss.
 
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