Aviator / Explorer nextgens - Page 10 - Ford Inside News Community
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post #91 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-08-2017, 12:49 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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Originally Posted by falcon lover View Post
...When Mercedes-Benz, Audi and BMW start producing electric vehicles in mass, there will be a little market for Tesla. And this can be as early as 2020
...I think... *but* ...dunno if I'm right

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Originally Posted by mtol115 View Post
If the aviator is slotted for a late 2018/early 2019 production, wouldn't we see test mules by now?
the only kind of tester I'd expect now would be an early hot-weather tester
but cwould still be wearing Explorer or
even RotW Ranger or Everest sheetmetal

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post #92 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-08-2017, 03:20 PM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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I think you missed my point, and my wording is partially to blame for it.

You were arguing that people like the Model 3 because it's a low-slung sedan/hatchback and not a crossover. My point was simply that it being a low slung hatchback is not the reason people like it, like you tried to imply.

Again, they like it because it's a Tesla, because it's affordable, and yes, because it looks good....I'm not denying it looks good, and actually agree, it does look good (though I think it'd look better with the S and X's badge placement). I think it would have been just as successful (at least as far as reservations go) had it been the Model "Y" (the reported Model 3-based crossover that'll be coming) first instead of the 3.
The selling point for the Model 3 is that it is a nice design inside and out, 100% electric with 200+ miles of range, has advanced autonomous technology and is affordable. Any major automaker who can offer the same could be successful. The market is not just looking for a Tesla, but looking for a combination that makes an EV an attractive option. The challenge the Germans will have is playing catch up and price point.

Their first attempt was the i3. But it was an econobox with about 80 miles of range and not enough for a daily commute for many. So only early adopters willing to sacrifice based on looks, size and range took one. Then was the i8, which offered even less EV range and 3 times more expensive, and impractical.

What equates to the best driving dynamics is a low center of gravity, which means a low riding sedan or hatch type vehicle will be required. Tesla knows this, which is why the Model 3 with over 450k reservations came out years before the Model Y which the combustion engine manufacturers think is their holy grail for sales. But electric sedans will prove them wrong....best selling Model S is teaching the large luxury car segment that lesson.

This is also why the sub compact Bolt has stunted/limited sales, along with the compact CUV Ford is planning in a few years. But this is intentional from Ford, GM, BMW and MB who must protect their heavy combustion engine investments, even when consumers are running toward full electric EVs. VW is the only one who may reach for global EV leadership, but now on their own, but because they are being forced to do to global combustion engine (diesel and petrol) emissions penalties.

Just think about it. For 2016 about 17,500,000 vehicles were sold in the US/Canada, and today over 550,000 consumers have put down a deposit to buy just one EV, from just one manufacturer. That's approaching the annual sales of Ford's F-150. And it's a sedan...not a CUV/SUV that the media keeps telling us everyone wants.
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post #93 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-08-2017, 04:10 PM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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Originally Posted by Bloggin View Post
The selling point for the Model 3 is that it is a nice design inside and out, 100% electric with 200+ miles of range, has advanced autonomous technology and is affordable. Any major automaker who can offer the same could be successful. The market is not just looking for a Tesla, but looking for a combination that makes an EV an attractive option. The challenge the Germans will have is playing catch up and price point.

Their first attempt was the i3. But it was an econobox with about 80 miles of range and not enough for a daily commute for many. So only early adopters willing to sacrifice based on looks, size and range took one. Then was the i8, which offered even less EV range and 3 times more expensive, and impractical.

What equates to the best driving dynamics is a low center of gravity, which means a low riding sedan or hatch type vehicle will be required. Tesla knows this, which is why the Model 3 with over 450k reservations came out years before the Model Y which the combustion engine manufacturers think is their holy grail for sales. But electric sedans will prove them wrong....best selling Model S is teaching the large luxury car segment that lesson.

This is also why the sub compact Bolt has stunted/limited sales, along with the compact CUV Ford is planning in a few years. But this is intentional from Ford, GM, BMW and MB who must protect their heavy combustion engine investments, even when consumers are running toward full electric EVs. VW is the only one who may reach for global EV leadership, but now on their own, but because they are being forced to do to global combustion engine (diesel and petrol) emissions penalties.

Just think about it. For 2016 about 17,500,000 vehicles were sold in the US/Canada, and today over 550,000 consumers have put down a deposit to buy just one EV, from just one manufacturer. That's approaching the annual sales of Ford's F-150. And it's a sedan...not a CUV/SUV that the media keeps telling us everyone wants.
Let's be realistic here - they might have 550,000 reservations, but I doubt they'll convert all of those to actual sales (remember, most people would want to lease these cars, so hopefully for Tesla's sake they have competitive lease programs). Also, the 550,000 represents pent-up demand, and would not translate to full year sales year after year. Their numbers will be initially helped by said pent-up demand, but will that be sustainable? I don't know the answer to that question. BMW sells anywhere in the 4-7K range of 3 series a month right now, but you're trying to say that Tesla is going to sell 45,000 3's a month? I'm sorry, not going to happen.
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post #94 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-08-2017, 05:17 PM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

It's unclear how you sustain production when so much of the capacity is depending on the enormous pent-up preorder demand and not necessarily consistent annual demand. This is an extraordinary scenario if they can fulfill the bulk of their pre-orders in 1 year, how do you keep that factory going when they settle back down?

And ultimately I think they need a successful Model 3 and Model Y launch to prove they are a sustainable full-line mainstream EV business. And that's going to take years by which time there should be more competition from the mainstream ICE manufacturers.

The other danger for Tesla is that they don't have enough resources to keep updating and refreshing their products, they can only do one thing at a time so it's quite possible for their products to simply age out of relevancy, but so far they are still SO far ahead of anything else they don't really need to keep anything fresher.
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post #95 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-08-2017, 05:31 PM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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Originally Posted by Assimilator View Post
It's unclear how you sustain production when so much of the capacity is depending on the enormous pent-up preorder demand and not necessarily consistent annual demand. This is an extraordinary scenario if they can fulfill the bulk of their pre-orders in 1 year, how do you keep that factory going when they settle back down?
That's what I wonder too, especially with Elon's claims of producing 500,000 a year or whatever he's claimed - will there be demand beyond the initial pre-orders? Yes, that I don't question, BUT at what volume? It won't be that 500,000 figure. Granted, that figure may be total units (S, X, and 3), but still....aren't they around 50K units/year right now? They plan on making 10 times that and having demand be there still? I'm not buying it, and I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but those are astronomical forecasts.

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post #96 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-08-2017, 06:01 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bloggin View Post
...a nice design inside and out, 100% electric with 200+ miles of range, has advanced autonomous technology and is affordable. Any major automaker who can offer the same could be successful...

...the best driving dynamics is a low center of gravity, which means a low riding sedan or hatch type vehicle will be required. Tesla knows this, which is why the Model 3 with over 450k reservations came out years before the Model Y which the combustion engine manufacturers think is their holy grail for sales. But electric sedans will prove them wrong....best selling Model S is teaching the large luxury car segment that lesson.

...the sub compact Bolt has stunted/limited sales, along with the compact CUV Ford is planning in a few years... ...even when consumers are running toward full electric EVs...

Just think about it. For 2016 about 17,500,000 vehicles were sold in the US/Canada, and today over 550,000 consumers have put down a deposit to buy just one EV, from just one manufacturer. That's approaching the annual sales of Ford's F-150. And it's a sedan...not a CUV/SUV that the media keeps telling us everyone wants.
I really wonder if this Either-OR Fallacy of car-Vs-Cuv could be eliminated (if the EPA(?) eliminated the Car/truck dichotomy?) by
just building roomy-enough vehicles: not too low, not too high (Crosstrek/Macan)
*AND*
with a alloy/cf body on a surfboard battery for low CoG
imho will hafta be from a lower volume mfg...trying to build a Goldilocks-popularity

Quote:
Originally Posted by Assimilator View Post
It's unclear how you sustain production when so much of the capacity is depending on the enormous pent-up preorder demand and not necessarily consistent annual demand. This is an extraordinary scenario if they can fulfill the bulk of their pre-orders in 1 year, how do you keep that factory going when they settle back down?
...
thus NO ONE at Tesla being sincere about how many they INTEND to build per year
*until*
nextgens of existing models are figured out THEN designed AND ready

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post #97 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-08-2017, 09:26 PM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

I saw a report that there were 63K cancellations of the 3, or about 455K reservations remain. Still a large number remains, but once people start tiring of waiting for orders that take years to get due to manufacturing constraints (or possible problems), I think that cancellation number will skyrocket. Not to mention all the competition that starts piling in.

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post #98 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-08-2017, 09:49 PM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

@wingsnut Those cancellations are largely because they don't want to wait to replace their current car, not that they're done with Tesla. Once these start hitting streets, those people will largely still want to get one if they were already passionate enough to put down 1K without reading a single review on the car.

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post #99 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-08-2017, 10:57 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

wouldn't it make more sense to finagle a deal with 'selling' your place in line for $2000~
rather than actually cancelling it??

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post #100 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-08-2017, 11:44 PM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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@wingsnut Those cancellations are largely because they don't want to wait to replace their current car, not that they're done with Tesla. Once these start hitting streets, those people will largely still want to get one if they were already passionate enough to put down 1K without reading a single review on the car.
Exactly, over 400k reservations were made before even seeing the vehicle, and now that it's been seen, wings is right, there were about 63k cancellations, but that's grown back up to over 450k now. Then as you mention as soon as people see them on the street, people that were not following the blogs, along with the dual motor performance model orders will continue to come in for some time.

Just think about it, the Model 3 has deposits down for over 5 times the annual sales of the 3-series or about 3 times the annual sales of 3-Series and C-Class combined.
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