Aviator / Explorer nextgens - Page 11 - Ford Inside News Community
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post #101 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-09-2017, 12:11 AM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

I would reserve a Model 3 if I thought the wait was reasonable, but I don't so I won't bother.
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post #102 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-09-2017, 08:19 AM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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It's unclear how you sustain production when so much of the capacity is depending on the enormous pent-up preorder demand and not necessarily consistent annual demand. This is an extraordinary scenario if they can fulfill the bulk of their pre-orders in 1 year, how do you keep that factory going when they settle back down?

And ultimately I think they need a successful Model 3 and Model Y launch to prove they are a sustainable full-line mainstream EV business. And that's going to take years by which time there should be more competition from the mainstream ICE manufacturers.

The other danger for Tesla is that they don't have enough resources to keep updating and refreshing their products, they can only do one thing at a time so it's quite possible for their products to simply age out of relevancy, but so far they are still SO far ahead of anything else they don't really need to keep anything fresher.
I suspect that by 2020 VW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz (maybe, who know, Ford too) will leave behind Tesla, and their S3XY products...
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post #103 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-09-2017, 10:54 AM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

I would be lying if I said that I am not glad that Ford threw a litigious monkey wrench into TESLA’s plan for a SEXY model lineup.

S3XY is not even worth mentioning and is void of any cool-ness factor. Ha!
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post #104 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-09-2017, 11:22 AM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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I saw a report that there were 63K cancellations of the 3, or about 455K reservations remain. Still a large number remains, but once people start tiring of waiting for orders that take years to get due to manufacturing constraints (or possible problems), I think that cancellation number will skyrocket. Not to mention all the competition that starts piling in.
I have to agree.

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Exactly, over 400k reservations were made before even seeing the vehicle, and now that it's been seen, wings is right, there were about 63k cancellations, but that's grown back up to over 450k now. Then as you mention as soon as people see them on the street, people that were not following the blogs, along with the dual motor performance model orders will continue to come in for some time.

Just think about it, the Model 3 has deposits down for over 5 times the annual sales of the 3-series or about 3 times the annual sales of 3-Series and C-Class combined.
I doubt most of the people who put a deposit down will wait. Maybe they'll end up in a Tesla eventually (after leasing another vehicle in the meantime), but with 450,000 people in line, it'll be a while before they get theirs.

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post #105 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-10-2017, 10:05 PM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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Exactly, over 400k reservations were made before even seeing the vehicle, and now that it's been seen, wings is right, there were about 63k cancellations, but that's grown back up to over 450k now. Then as you mention as soon as people see them on the street, people that were not following the blogs, along with the dual motor performance model orders will continue to come in for some time.
I suspect a large number of those holding reservations are expecting a well-equipped car for the advertised $35k base price. Some will be shocked, and some simply won't be able to afford the car they want. And unless the fed extends the $7,500 tax credit, many buyers won't benefit from the generous taxpayer subsidy, either. Then there's the "minimalist" interior, which is Tesla speak for "buttons, knobs and switches are expensive, so you don't get any". I'm sorry, but I find that idiotic. I wouldn't buy the car for that reason alone, just like we didn't buy the Model X because of the silly Falcon Wing doors.

I like Tesla, and I'm rooting for their survival, but they still have a long way to go.

Rod

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post #106 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-10-2017, 10:21 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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I suspect a large number of those holding reservations are expecting a well-equipped car for the advertised $35k base price. Some will be shocked, and some simply won't be able to afford the car they want. And unless the fed extends the $7,500 tax credit, many buyers won't benefit from the generous taxpayer subsidy, either. Then there's the "minimalist" interior, which is Tesla speak for "buttons, knobs and switches are expensive, so you don't get any". I'm sorry, but I find that idiotic. I wouldn't buy the car for that reason alone, just like we didn't buy the Model X because of the silly Falcon Wing doors.

I like Tesla, and I'm rooting for their survival, but they still have a long way to go.
really makes me wish some other (preferably American) Mfg would get serious about electrification...

...& as I've said all BEVs and most plug-ins still fall into the premium-Lux strata,
ie drivetrains that cost close to or more than $10k
.

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post #107 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-11-2017, 11:27 AM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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I suspect a large number of those holding reservations are expecting a well-equipped car for the advertised $35k base price. Some will be shocked, and some simply won't be able to afford the car they want.
Quote:
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And unless the fed extends the $7,500 tax credit, many buyers won't benefit from the generous taxpayer subsidy, either. Then there's the "minimalist" interior, which is Tesla speak for "buttons, knobs and switches are expensive, so you don't get any". I'm sorry, but I find that idiotic. I wouldn't buy the car for that reason alone, just like we didn't buy the Model X because of the silly Falcon Wing doors.

I like Tesla, and I'm rooting for their survival, but they still have a long way to go.
If they expected the $35K version to have everything they want, they're just naive.

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post #108 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-11-2017, 12:59 PM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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[B]

If they expected the $35K version to have everything they want, they're just naive.
True. But consumers tend to be naive in general, don't they? Plus, when Tesla started taking deposits, very limited information was available (which I think was by design). Potential customers were holding a place in line "just in case", which is precisely why I think many will have second thoughts.

I'm quite certain plenty of customers will gladly pay $50k+ for a model 3 with some upgrades. But you can still get an awful lot of car for $50k if you're looking at conventional powertrains, or even hybrids. Plus, if the tax credit expires for Tesla as expected, will consumers go looking for an alternate electric that still qualifies for the subsidy? Mercedes, Audi, Jaguar, VW, etc ... there are lots on the horizon.



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post #109 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-11-2017, 01:17 PM
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Re: Aviator / Explorer nextgens

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True. But consumers tend to be naive in general, don't they? Plus, when Tesla started taking deposits, very limited information was available (which I think was by design). Potential customers were holding a place in line "just in case", which is precisely why I think many will have second thoughts.

I'm quite certain plenty of customers will gladly pay $50k+ for a model 3 with some upgrades. But you can still get an awful lot of car for $50k if you're looking at conventional powertrains, or even hybrids. Plus, if the tax credit expires for Tesla as expected, will consumers go looking for an alternate electric that still qualifies for the subsidy? Mercedes, Audi, Jaguar, VW, etc ... there are lots on the horizon.

That's true, they are. And no, I have no doubt that some just put a deposit down to have a place in line. And yes, I also agree some will jump ship for other offerings if they come out before their 3 can be built.
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post #110 of 236 (permalink) Old 08-11-2017, 01:30 PM
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You think we will see a concept at Pebble Beach or LA?
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