Ford Will Ease Into EVs - Page 22 - Ford Inside News Community
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post #211 of 220 (permalink) Old 11-06-2017, 05:20 AM
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Re: Ford Will Ease Into EVs

There are no enough buyers for all those EVs that will be in the market in 3 years... Some automakers will lose a lot of money.
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post #212 of 220 (permalink) Old 11-06-2017, 08:03 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Ford Will Ease Into EVs

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There are no enough buyers for all those EVs that will be in the market in 3 years... Some automakers will lose a lot of money.
Remember.....Tesla has over 450,000 Model 3 paid reservations to fulfill globally. To put that in perspective, there were just over 1.3 Million vehicles sold in the US in October. This means that Tesla has over1/3 of the entire US auto market in paid reservations for just one EV. With about 1,800 new reservations being added daily. The rest of the auto industry see this and are trying to capitalize on the tremendous pent-up demand for a nice looking 200+ mile EV. So far the industry has only been willing to offer small utilitarian ecoboxes and hatchbacks. But that's all about to change.

The conversation about EVs reminds me of the conversation about home computers years ago, with so many thinking it's just a fad and not understanding why anyone would want a personal computer when they already have a typewriter.
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post #213 of 220 (permalink) Old 11-06-2017, 08:30 PM
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Re: Ford Will Ease Into EVs

I think Tesla will absorb and create most of those customers, I don't think the market as a whole is rushing toward EVs in the US. It's a little like the Prius to some extent. The Prius is a freak of Toyota innovation and created the market and then capitalized on it when gas prices shot up. Ford only took interest because of Toyota's success and the subsequent market and regulatory pressures, and once Ford did respond they were relatively successful at it in a very mundane way (buried anonymously in other cars so customers wouldn't notice). Ford has a solid history of playing 2nd fiddle in electrification which is not bad in a such a big industry, but obviously they've been less motivated to join the BEV market because it's expensive and it requires more specialized platforms which HEV and PHEV don't. And since that means a truly competitive BEV has a much more specialized customer, they have to make sure the customer is there before they get into it. And unless the market conditions pressure them to do it, Ford is less likely to be interested. So you have to be somewhat ideological to pursue BEVs in the current environment Ford definitely is not that kind of car company even if they talk like they are. IN either case, Ford is not alone in this and unless Tesla starts selling million of EVs and depletes that customer to the point it's too late..it's not too late for them to join in while they focus on their sure bets (Trucks, SUVs, Vans).

Ford as a whole is not the kind of car company that creates accidentally success stories, but they are very good at making every product a success story. This is not a company that experiments, they calculate..which is boring for sure but not uncommon.

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post #214 of 220 (permalink) Old 11-06-2017, 08:34 PM
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Re: Ford Will Ease Into EVs

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Originally Posted by Bloggin View Post
Remember.....Tesla has over 450,000 Model 3 paid reservations to fulfill globally. To put that in perspective, there were just over 1.3 Million vehicles sold in the US in October. This means that Tesla has over1/3 of the entire US auto market in paid reservations for just one EV. With about 1,800 new reservations being added daily. The rest of the auto industry see this and are trying to capitalize on the tremendous pent-up demand for a nice looking 200+ mile EV. So far the industry has only been willing to offer small utilitarian ecoboxes and hatchbacks. But that's all about to change.

The conversation about EVs reminds me of the conversation about home computers years ago, with so many thinking it's just a fad and not understanding why anyone would want a personal computer when they already have a typewriter.
I think that is a poor analogy.
A better one would be that EV's are like when the industry thought that tablets would replace big heavy laptops one day. But instead, they became a limited use device instead. And today, many laptops have become more efficient and light and even hybrids, offering some tablet functionality in addition to full keyboard functionality.
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post #215 of 220 (permalink) Old 11-06-2017, 08:44 PM
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Re: Ford Will Ease Into EVs

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I think that is a poor analogy.
A better one would be that EV's are like when the industry thought that tablets would replace big heavy laptops one day. But instead, they became a limited use device instead. And today, many laptops have become more efficient and light and even hybrids, offering some tablet functionality in addition to full keyboard functionality.
So effectively you are equating an ICE with a physical keyboard? So in this analogy, is there a scenario in which the keyboard/ICE can be replaced?

I wish people would think through their analogies because people would learn to stop using them since they create a false reductive equivalency in every detail.
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post #216 of 220 (permalink) Old 11-06-2017, 09:06 PM
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Re: Ford Will Ease Into EVs

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So effectively you are equating an ICE with a physical keyboard? So in this analogy, is there a scenario in which the keyboard/ICE can be replaced?

I wish people would think through their analogies because people would learn to stop using them since they create a false reductive equivalency in every detail.
Electric car to personal computers is a poor analogy. Nobody believes electric cars are a fad as with personal computers, the only question that is largely debated is when the dam will break and for how long humans will actually maintain control vs being autonomous.
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post #217 of 220 (permalink) Old 11-06-2017, 09:17 PM
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Re: Ford Will Ease Into EVs

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Electric car to personal computers is a poor analogy. Nobody believes electric cars are a fad as with personal computers, the only question that is largely debated is when the dam will break and for how long humans will actually maintain control vs being autonomous.
Steve Jobs famously referred to the PC as a Truck, you need Trucks for some work but most people are now better served by mobile devices (mostly smartphones). And the move to mobility substantially accelerated computing and infrastructure innovation (apps, mobile networking, social networking). I think that's a better analogy, we've peeked out on ICEs and have for decades, but EVs open the world to autonomy and a huge variety of mobile services...but we'll still need those "Trucks" to make that transition and to maintain it. So there is no question where the growth is and where the potential lies and how transformative it will be, so understandably there is a huge amount of kvetching about how to participate in the revolution that is clearly about to happen.
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post #218 of 220 (permalink) Old 11-06-2017, 11:05 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Ford Will Ease Into EVs

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Originally Posted by wingsnut View Post
I think that is a poor analogy.
A better one would be that EV's are like when the industry thought that tablets would replace big heavy laptops one day. But instead, they became a limited use device instead. And today, many laptops have become more efficient and light and even hybrids, offering some tablet functionality in addition to full keyboard functionality.
Tablets were never to replace the laptop, but another option when a laptop was not needed. Along with the difference between an ICE vehicle and an EV has no process change attached, like switching from a keyboard to a touchscreen for typing. Maybe the switch to EV from ICE is more like the old Leaf commercial in a dramatic/exaggerated way.

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post #219 of 220 (permalink) Old 11-07-2017, 01:46 AM
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Re: Ford Will Ease Into EVs

^ cool commercial ...

...now steal their ad company


&
multi/spamming threads
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bloggin View Post
Remember.....Tesla has over 450,000 Model 3 paid reservations to fulfill globally. To put that in perspective, there were just over 1.3 Million vehicles sold in the US in October. This means that Tesla has over1/3 of the entire US auto market in paid reservations for just one EV. With about 1,800 new reservations being added daily. The rest of the auto industry see this and are trying to capitalize on the tremendous pent-up demand for a nice looking 200+ mile EV. So far the industry has only been willing to offer small utilitarian ecoboxes and hatchbacks. But that's all about to change...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assimilator View Post
I think the mainstream BEV will largely start with...
...the hand-me-downs of the LUX-e market -- eventually -- after the richest pickings are spoken-for

I'd like to see Lincoln skim the CREAM off of Tesla's over 450,000 Model 3 paid reservations
.
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post #220 of 220 (permalink) Old 11-08-2017, 08:10 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Ford Will Ease Into EVs

It's really amazing how quickly electrification has changed the expectation of the small, midsize and large sedans and CUV.

As good as Tesla models are from an exterior, technology and powertrain perspective, it is in added a nicer interior that will raise the bar. And this new crop of 300 miles EVs under $30k will be the rebirth of the sedan and 5-door. This is an interesting social experiment playing out. Buried in the repeated articles about consumers moving to CUVs, there are now consumers in blogs talking about switching back to sedans. Mostly because the sedans cost about $7k less than the same class CUV, the sedan is easier to drive in the city, more fun to drive, and the fact that they figured out they didn't need all that extra space costing them gas mileage. What seems to be happening is that once consumers get over 'having what the neighbor has' they figure it's not worth it. But at the same time, the larger families over 2 kids thought the CUV SUV was a good fit, but those the single, empty nesters and 1-2 kids don't really see the need.

Which is why I think car companies who are about to launch a new 200-300+ mile EV in the next year, had better offer a sedan/5-door because that's where the market is going. Which is why I am hoping Ford's new small CUV is more like a 5-door sports sedan(in the Focus family) with a version for Lincoln.

Ford will also need to offer at least 2 battery pack sizes, 200+ and 300+ until 400+ arrives. While also offering at least three different motor powers, along with FWD, RWD or AWD.
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