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post #41 of 63 (permalink) Old 07-01-2018, 12:07 PM
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Margin is the name of the game. OTBE (other things being equal) the only thing profit shows about a company is that it is no longer expanding. You turn a profit when expansion no longer brings a reasonable return on investment. Margin, OTOH, is very important at it provides the structural information about whether a company will be profitable once capex ends. A Model S currently has a 25% margin, which trounces about everyone, and is targeted at 28% later this year, IIRC.

Model 3 obviously has much bigger issues. If Tesla was just about the Model S, they'd be golden, but they are making capital expenditures to grow quickly. They want to grab as much market and mind share as possible before legacy manufacturers get in the fray. They have to strike while they have the advantage. If they wait and do things the way of the old legacy manufacturers, no doubt it would result in a better end product, but they would lose their advantage. They have to operate this way if they stand a chance of surviving. Unfortunately at times they look like a monkey humping a football.
No need to explain the very simplistic margin formula to me, I am quite well versed in it. Net profit, to be a bit more specific, is what is missing from Tesla and clearly what I was referring to, and clearly what you skirted around when you started beating your chest about volumes. Would you care to continue that discussion? And yes, Musk is desperate to overcome considerable problems, problems typical of rapid expansion, especially for newbie companies. Problems btw, that Ford is quite well versed in. But forget Ford, it is that same industry that will trounce Tesla with what is quite simplistic technology, and certainly manufacturing, in BEV production.
Considering you keep harping on profit, you clearly do need an explanation as profit at this stage is meaningless. The only simplistic thinking is 'profit, profit, profit '. If want to have a real discussion, we can talk about all the issues Ford will run into downsizing that are just as bad or worse as Tesla's growth. The only question left is whether Ford adapts and moves forward or ends up like Kodak, and recognizes the shift too late. I'm also old enough to remember when Hyundai/Kia were the biggest POS garbage cars in the industry 20 years ago. Hubris is dangerous and often deadly in industry. I wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch.
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post #42 of 63 (permalink) Old 07-01-2018, 01:08 PM
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Re: Ford says battery tech still too immature for performance EV

Dup

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post #43 of 63 (permalink) Old 07-01-2018, 01:15 PM
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Re: Ford says battery tech still too immature for performance EV

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Considering you keep harping on profit, you clearly do need an explanation as profit at this stage is meaningless. The only simplistic thinking is 'profit, profit, profit '. If want to have a real discussion, we can talk about all the issues Ford will run into downsizing that are just as bad or worse as Tesla's growth. The only question left is whether Ford adapts and moves forward or ends up like Kodak, and recognizes the shift too late. I'm also old enough to remember when Hyundai/Kia were the biggest POS garbage cars in the industry 20 years ago. Hubris is dangerous and often deadly in industry. I wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch.

My occasional slants against Tesla's lack of profits are typically, if not always, in the presence of repeated boasting of their nearly complete market share ownership and volumes. Lots of predictions about their longevity can and are made, that's fine. We all do it. But the only thing we know for certain is that the market will soon be flooded and Tesla will completely lose their upper hand. I am quite consistent on this subject.
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post #44 of 63 (permalink) Old 07-01-2018, 09:51 PM
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Re: Ford says battery tech still too immature for performance EV

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No way anyone who drove an electric and an ICE back to back would pick the ICE, unless it was sold at a considerable discount. I expect that to be the case, which the opposite of what you're predicting. BEVs will cause ICE cars to drop precipitously in price as legacy manufacturers attempt to dismantle their legacy commitments with some semblance of order.

I see fans of BEV's say things like this all the time, but I don't get it. I've driven what many think is the premier BEV more than once, and while it was neat in some ways I have no idea why anybody would pick one over an ICE given the shortcomings. It does a few things that are kinda' neat, but the pricing is still extravagant and would be much more extravagant without truly significant subsidies. And yes, before somebody says it, the Model S is fast. There are fast gasoline-powered cars as well. Frankly, I don't understand the fascination.
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post #45 of 63 (permalink) Old 07-01-2018, 11:17 PM
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Re: Ford says battery tech still too immature for performance EV

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My occasional slants against Tesla's lack of profits are typically, if not always, in the presence of repeated boasting of their nearly complete market share ownership and volumes. Lots of predictions about their longevity can and are made, that's fine. We all do it. But the only thing we know for certain is that the market will soon be flooded and Tesla will completely lose their upper hand. I am quite consistent on this subject.
If we look at how many angles Tesla is targeting with the EV market, it's going to be a long time before any of the 'older' automakers will catch up. Remember that Tesla is doing it all now with just one auto manufacturing plant and one battery plant. But the current plan is to build another battery plant and auto plant in China and in Europe. Importing of the RHD Model S and X is already happening, and the RHD Model 3 is coming later this year. The biggest headstart for Tesla is the Supercharger network that is already established in global major markets with aggressive efforts for expansion. Just like in the US, the plan is to build out Superchargers, then ramp up auto production in that market.

The other automakers coming after the EV market, may have 1 or 2 or 3 models on the way, but it is the charging infrastructure and autopilot, along with best in class crash safety along with model design that will keep Tesla ahead as others timidly 'enter' the market. With the biggest advantage for Tesla is that they don't have to protect their own ICE products/development costs/dealership interests/revenues, while at the same time slowly transition to EVs. Tesla can go all in on EVs and keep progressing.

BTW....those that shorted Tesla will have massive losses..

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post #46 of 63 (permalink) Old 07-02-2018, 01:20 PM
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Re: Ford says battery tech still too immature for performance EV

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I see fans of BEV's say things like this all the time, but I don't get it. I've driven what many think is the premier BEV more than once, and while it was neat in some ways I have no idea why anybody would pick one over an ICE given the shortcomings. It does a few things that are kinda' neat, but the pricing is still extravagant and would be much more extravagant without truly significant subsidies. And yes, before somebody says it, the Model S is fast. There are fast gasoline-powered cars as well. Frankly, I don't understand the fascination.
Just curious what you think the shortcomings are. Speed is pretty much the least important advantage a BEV has over ICE.
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post #47 of 63 (permalink) Old 07-02-2018, 02:10 PM
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Re: Ford says battery tech still too immature for performance EV

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Just curious what you think the shortcomings are. Speed is pretty much the least important advantage a BEV has over ICE.
Any trip near or over 300 miles.
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post #48 of 63 (permalink) Old 07-02-2018, 03:55 PM
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Re: Ford says battery tech still too immature for performance EV

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Just curious what you think the shortcomings are. Speed is pretty much the least important advantage a BEV has over ICE.
The only potential advantages I noticed were the instant torque and very quiet nature of the engine, both of which ICE engines can do well enough already. Considering that, in my experience, range is still a very real issue and that pricing, both current and future, is worrisome to put it mildly; count me as totally disinterested. I think BEV's are akin to driving aids like lane-departure warning and collision alert. A lot of hype about nothing of substance and more likely detrimental than an actual boon to their intended cause.

We would be enormously better off spending the money subsidizing this nonsense on better roadways and more realistic alternative fuels like ethanol or methanol replacing gasoline. Remember when diesel cars in Europe showed us 'the future' and Europeans would regularly gloat about the same? That is, until the obvious long-term problems diesel brought to the table were finally recognized and, now, Europe seemingly can't rid themselves of diesel engines fast enough. People are doing the same with the BEV and self-driving cars for reasons that don't pass any real sniff test, including the gloating. It's a manufactured problem with a contrived solution.

It's like we're desperate to prove that we're a moonshot generation even though we can't come up with anything worthy of a moonshot-like effort. So, we just made something up.
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post #49 of 63 (permalink) Old 07-02-2018, 05:06 PM
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Re: Ford says battery tech still too immature for performance EV

We should not under estimate the likes of GM, Ford and Toyota to sit back
like crocodiles until the time is right and just drop into mass production of EVs
like they are just another mass produced vehicle.


It's not the product or its ability to wow buyers, we know what EVs can do,
the real battle is being able to mass produce a profitable EV that has decent
range and can be recharged quickly all at a price the bulk of the market can afford.


As far as I can see, an affordable BEV is still a ways off but getting closer, the majors
like Ford are indicating what sort of battery they want before fully engaging the market
and IMO, there's still a lot of time to do that. The 3 will be a curiosity for now but ultimately
blase the trail for every other mass produced BEV to eclipse it ....and go further.

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post #50 of 63 (permalink) Old 07-02-2018, 06:53 PM
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Re: Ford says battery tech still too immature for performance EV

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Any trip near or over 300 miles.
Range is relative. It all depends on the use of the vehicle that dictates how a long trip over 300 miles may impact the drive.

For example, with 90% of Americans commuting to work daily, with a round trip of less than 50 miles, a 200 or 300 mile EV is the best replacement vehicle. Especially with the 75% reduction in fuel costs, or about the equivalent of 4 gallons(about $20 in electricity) to travel 320 miles. Compared with the $60 to travel the same distance in an ICE vehicle. That's a $40 savings weekly on fuel costs or over $2,000 annually in savings on fuel alone. The fuel savings along could just about pay for the monthly lease of the EV. Then deduct the maintenance savings over 3 - 5 - 7 years of ownership and the EV can actually pay for itself in savings.

Now for those that travel over 300 miles on a regular basis, nothing much changes, because today, most have a smaller car as a daily commuter and a larger vehicle/SUV/Pick-up for longer trips. They would just keep the larger vehicle for longer trips, and replace the smaller daily commuter car/cuv with an EV and benefit from the fuel/maintenance savings, along with better drive-ability. Then there are those with the 300+ mile Tesla today that can charge at a Supercharger while having lunch, dinner or resting for the night before starting out in the morning. Driving an EV is a smarter drive than with an ICE vehicle, where the vehicle knows where it needs to charge and what route to take to makes sure it get there can based on the route/destination. The only way this gets messed up is if the human decides he/she knows better and tries to outthink technology...then it's on them. Thousands of people do 300+ mile trips every day in EVs.

However, those who only have the one large SUV/Pick-up, will just keep driving that and pay higher fuel prices, higher maintenance fees, along with annual emissions testing fees. But Ford is to offer a hybrid for that demographic to lower those costs. This is only until the larger vehicle transition to EV which has to happen.

So the only way a person could be 'concerned' about a 300 mile trip in an EV, would be if they just don't know enough about EVs in the first place...and for that consumer, an ICE vehicle is their best option.
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