Ok so XT5 sells roughly 5-6000 units monthly...so are u suggesting that there are only 5-6000 buyers monthly ready to purchase a Cadillac SUV and even though they may want a larger or smaller SUV, they settle for XT5 because that's the only choice and these buyers drop a fair chunk of cash on a vehicle size they didn't really want? And subsequently, any future caddy SUV will be sharing this same pool of buyers? That's speculation at its finest!
Lets say you really like Cadillac and want a crossover, when your only options are currently XT5, XT5 or the massive BOF SUV Escalade (yes, I intentionally typed XT5 twice), the buyer would only have the XT5 as a true option. So yes, I do believe that a buyer would settle for an XT5. I didn't say XT4 and XT5 buyers would share the same limited pool......yes there'd be some overlap, but as a whole, I said total sales would grow.
As I explained in the MKX's case, the numbers may actually go up for XT5 with siblings. So everything is speculation. Why is this so difficult to understand? And in the end it's my opinion...please stop already. I know u want everything on this forum to be ford positive and let's sh*t on everything gm but I have a right to my opinion. And if you had read further, I may have to reconsider my stand on MKX/mkc sales numbers so my theory goes out the window.
Perhaps I should have added "initially" to my comment, as long term as the brand gets stronger and is considered by more buyers, yes, I would agree sales of both individually (and obviously the total together) would increase. But after launch and for a few months after, I'd say it's very likely that you'd see some XT5 buyers jump to an "XT4," resulting in a lower total for XT5.
For reference, here's a chart showing MKC and MKX sales from 2012 until now, and you can see what happens with MKC's debut.
EDIT: Dark blue represents MKX, orange represents MKC, and green represents all Lincoln utilities together. I realized I accidentally chose the Lincoln utilities section for the data in the chart, I'm keeping that graph, but adding the correct one of just MKC and MKX volume.
NOTE: before April 2014, the green and dark blue lines are identical.
So as you can see, after MKC's debut, MKX numbers dropped for a few months before the new one debuted and it jumped back up. So as I said, I should've added initially to my comment on XT5, but I still stand by what I said.
I could get numbers going back to MKX's debut in 2007 and I could argue that MKX is only now returning to previous levels (meaning its' numbers would be higher without MKC present), but I won't. I think Lincoln is stronger with the two crossovers side by side in the lineup, as they do appeal to a broader base than just the MKX.
I'd be interested to put together numbers on the Lexus NX/RX, as they're a much stronger brand. If I get a chance to this weekend, I'll put that together and see what happened.
As a side note, I can't recall if it was this thread or another, but here's the data/charts showing the sales difference between Lincoln/Cadillac: