Re: Ford January 2018 Sales Down 6.6%; Lincoln Sales Plummet 27%
It could have been a bad month to buy a Lincoln, not sure what the incentive spending was like but that drop is massive. That has to been one of their worst months since 2013. MCEs almost never effect sales that significantly so I don't think the MKC and Nautilus reveals have anything to do with it.
Fusion continues to crater to new lows at a time when I thought it had settled down. If the Fusion is a big money loser, Ford might be eager to reduce the damage by simply dropping as much harmful volume as it can. Edge has the potential to overtake Fusion at some point (not that Edge is growing, just that Fusion is shrinking). The ongoing press about Ford cancelling Fusion may have also put a nail in the Fusion coffin.
Ford's ATPs are going up substantially as they shift more and more of their volume to big trucks and away from their Cars and (unfortunately) SUVs.
It's still just 1-month and it's hard to ignore the fact that Ford is not in good condition right now and it's going to look bad for awhile. It will likely get much worse with RAM and Silverado/Sierra coming online. Since F-Series is their only growth asset right now we should see their margins drop back down to normal with more competitive pressure. Ford usually keeps F-Series sales stable with heavier incentive spending so I don't expect a major sales decline with F-Series over the next 2 years. Ford car sales will certainly drop much farther once Focus and C-Max goes on hiatus so it's going to be a very bad year of stats for Ford, but I think they'll be able to keep their bottom-line stable. EcoSport will add some volume to soften the blow and Ranger will join a new Focus next year to recover some of the volume they are going to lose this year. The Stockholder panic might drive more dramatic decision making if they can't stabilize these numbers in a healthy market so it should be an interesting year.
Last edited by Assimilator; 02-02-2018 at 04:59 PM.