Fords sedan sales is compounded. We have to take into account that Ford did not renew the Focus and Fusion on schedule with the leading competition, and that cost sales of those models as well. Which means Focus is about 50k low in sales compared with it's competition today, Fusion is abut 20k off due to the same reason before taking into account the model ending news. This loss has to do with what Ford has done to themselves.
Of course Ford has been playing the conversion from cars to Utilities for the past five years,
they've worked down from over 86,000 in 2013 to 595,000 last year, all the while replacing most of those sales with more Utilities and truck sales. What I'm showing is that the same thing will continue as Ford sells even more desirable products.
Looking at the trucks the leader Tacoma is at 72k YTD, while Fords closest competitor in this segment would be the Colorado at 28k which is in line with the 120k annual sales estimate. However with the Focus Active, it really can't compare with the Subaru Crosstrek unless Ford offers a compatible AWD system for customers who actually buy the Crosstrek for a practical reason. What may happens is the Active and Escape will share Escape sales, with Focus customers moving to the new Civic, new Corolla, new Elantra, or new Cruze. But then again, Ford's focus is lower sales and higher pricing expecting 'insecure' customers to pay more an 'image upgrade'.
My source has indicated to me that Ford has planned 120K of Rangers in the first year and that they expect that to be conservative to actual market need.
Focus active walks in two segments, those who still want a car but who areopen to trying something different, it is not a true Crosstek competitor because it dosn't have to be and I would be very surprised if it doesn't pick up at least 60K in annualized sales.
While Bronco will be more of a specialty model in the SUV segment which should be more around 60k, since off-roaders won't be giving up their Jeeps, but we have to wait and see what it actually ends up looking like. Best guess is that it will be a rather conservative Everest sibling.
Dead wrong on this.
Bronco is first of next Gen T6 Platform and will have everything that Gen 1 T6 Ranger currently lacks
The development of Bronco was done as a separate project by North America, the top hat is zero Everest.
(think Wrangler with a Ford twist and Ford DNA like Explorer.)
But here is what the industry already knows is that current car consumers want to keep their car and may add an SUV. But when going electric, they want a lower center of gravity to benefit from the dramatically better driving dynamics, along with better aerodynamics and longer range. Which is why automakers trying to push consumers into higher riding EV SUVs will have low sales, while the lower the vehicle the better the sales. It's just that the industry is trying to spike the price by calling it an SUV, when consumers want a car.
Of course they are and for the most part, I recon it will work and in fact has been working for a while.
Consumers will switch from owning a car + SUV to near car crossover + SUV.
Which is why we will see more vehicles like Nissan concept below, as automaker try to blend the SUVish styling to jusrify a price increase, with the lower center of gravity , better aerodynamics and better driving dynamics consumers want from an EV. Essentually a sedan or 5-door with larger wheels, but lowering the roofline as much as possible for aerodynics.
While others will offer a more conventional sedan as an EV with better aero, higher range, better driving dynamics, which will be a much easier sale, at lower cost at higher volumes. But needing to fill consumer demands, there will always be room for both designs, but the EV will give the sedan segment a big boost.
However, gone are the days when consumers want their EV to look like an ICE model. Automakers will need new designs for the EV to distance it from the combustion engine model, especially if they want 'clean' consumers to buy.
I think you're getting caught up in the breadth of change in the industry instead of
looking at where Ford intends to play, all the vehicles it has nominated so far are
agents of change in existing car plants, they are coming regardless of whether
we like it or not.