Electric vehicle batteries are getting cheaper much faster than we expected
And automakers are using those economies of scale to jump into stationary storage.
by Megan Geuss - Jul 16, 2015
... In 2014, the average cost of installing a stationary Li-ion battery in a California home was $23,429, according to The Wall Street Journal. In May, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that these batteries would start at $3,500, plus a $500 installation cost.
It's no secret that Li-ion battery packs have been getting cheaper, and it's unsurprising that Tesla, would experience some economies of scale to allow that kind of price point (whether or not the price is subsidized by the company). And the price is only likely to come down, as the company is in the process of building a massive “gigafactory” outside of Reno, Nevada, with Panasonic to produce Li-ion batteries. Beyond Tesla, however, a recent paper published in Nature Climate Change gathered data to confirm that the cost of Li-ion battery packs for electric vehicles are falling for everyone. If trends continue, the paper suggests, electric vehicle battery packs and their stationary brethren could compete more effectively against gas cars and backup generators not too far into the future.
The research suggests that the cost of producing battery packs for electric vehicles has fallen dramatically between 2007 and 2014, to lower price points than previous optimistic projections had expected. “Results show that costs in 2014 were probably already below average projected costs for the 2020 time frame,”
Björn Nykvist and Måns Nilsson wrote in their recent paper.
Nykvist and Nilsson say their data indicate that battery pack costs will continue their precipitous decline, perhaps even reaching the point where Li-ion battery systems on electric vehicles reach parity with gas-guzzling vehicles. (Although the authors of the paper admit that this point, if we ever reach it, is still far in the future—not something we're likely to see this year or next.)
“The single most important factor in achieving a compelling and affordable mass-market BEV [battery electric vehicle] is its relative cost,” Nykvist and Nilsson wrote. “It is commonly understood that the cost of battery packs needs to fall to below US$150 per kWh in order for BEVs to become cost-competitive
on par with internal combustion vehicles.”...
...The two researchers did not distinguish between different variants of Li-ion battery chemistry because there was too little data to break out each technology separately, nor did they take into account the costs of hybrid car batteries.
What they found was that the cost of battery backs for electric vehicles has decreased from about $1,000 per kWh in 2007 to about $450 per kWh in 2014. And that's taking all battery electric vehicle manufacturers into account. When you separate out the largest companies making electric vehicles, the cost reductions get even more dramatic. “[T]he cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower, at US$300 per kWh,” the researchers added...
"...other industry experts have also estimated that battery packs in general make up 25 percent of vehicle prices, which corresponds to approximately US$300 per kWh, for example, Nissan Leaf in 2014.”...
...So, this race to bring Li-ion batteries to a market that may be on the cusp of affording them is likely to continue. But when will Li-ion batteries reach a price point where they make more economic sense to use in cars and in stationary storage than gasoline or gas generators? Nykvist told Ars: “It is impossible to assess when such a low level of USD 150/kWh will be reached as it is too far into the future, but we conclude in the paper that the trajectory is very positive, and if the current momentum lasts for a couple of years... a cost level somewhere around 200-250 USD/kWh before 2020 is quite likely.”
quite a bit more...
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I keep thinking of a 100kWh** car that would (thus) have a 400+mile range (afaik)
100kWh * $300per = $30k
100kWh * $150per = $15k
= LUXURY BRAND (imhO)
...even a 10kWh battery for a plug-in with 40+miles range =
an extra $3k-$1500
not for every mainstreamer!
Tesla announced 90kWh today + other stuff