[wingsnut]

http://www.autoblog.com/2014/12/18/analyst-slashes-tesla-forecast-40-percent-fuel-prices/


"While nobody buying a Model S today is doing so to save on their monthly expenses, the longer-term story is far more dependent on the volume success of the Model 3," Jonas wrote, according to CNN Money. "Oil price is a factor for Model 3."

 

[wingsnut]

This is why I applaud Ford for being so diverse in their future growth and not putting all their powertrain research efforts into one basket.

HEV, PHEV, Diesel, GTDI, BEV, Flex Fuel with E85, Fuel cell tech, Hydrogen busses, and something you have all not heard about yet in that they are investing heavily in lightening all aspects of a vehicle, not just an Al truck body.

Of course taking a conservative approach does not a news worthy story make, and we lean toward the news grabbing headlines that someone with only oversold dreams, like Musk, can generate.

 

[Andrew L]

I have a very strong feeling these low fuel prices will not last.

 

[wingsnut]

They may, or they may not. But one thing for certain is that they showcase with a bright spot light, the potential volatility for all.

 

[iculookn]

The Saudi's did a pre-emptive strike on the less-OPEC dependant competition out there making there investments less profitable right now. The goal is for everyone to relax, buy the bigger vehicles, slow implementation of more energy efficient/fuel efficient products then raise the prices again.

Fields stated that Ford will stay it's course because he too believes this is short-term. I do believe hybrid and especially electric vehicles will be hurt by this.

 

[SP1966]

It is easy, and pretty much required that established companies like Ford not put all their eggs in one basket while a newcomer like Tesla needs to have a focus, something that sets them apart from their established competitors. Like them or not they have had a larger impact on the market than any new auto brand has in decades.

As for their future, if gas prices were to remain this low they will likely be just another footnote in history, or more specifically, the next brand who's IP is purchased by the Chinese. Can't really blame them though, I don't think anybody really expected cheap gas again.

 

[Bloggin]

I have a very strong feeling these low fuel prices will not last.

They won't last because the pricing is driven by a market grab by OPEC who is flooding the market with cheap oil from the middle east, in an attempt to drive out the smaller, midsize oil companies and restrict profits from the big guys.

OPEC drops the price of oil they send to the US by about half, so US providers have to do the same to compete which cuts their profits, and then smaller providers won't last.

I expect by spring/summer when fuel use has it's peak, and the targeting completion has folded, OPEC get back to looking for more profits, and oil prices will climb back to where they oil companies artificially had it set.

But here is the thing. The last time oil companies artificially jacked up oil prices to $5/gallon, consumers went to hybrids and plug-ins to use less fuel. Even with dropping oil prices by 1/2(in what I think is an attempt to slow the hybrid/plug-in vehicle sales), hybrid sales have dropped by about 20%, but plug-in(that use Zero fuel some or all of the time) sales are up over 30%.

The oil providers see the trend away from there core product. And now must balance consistently diminishing volume with pricing that can directly accelerate the consumers move away from oil forever. There are over a dozen new plug-in vehicles coming for 2015 and 2016 using little to no oil and battery prices dropping and next gen tech coming. And the launch of the 200 mile $40k Ev from Tesla, that hits the EV sweet spot for most car owners with a garage to charge at home. Ford and GM are expected to do the same in about the same timeframe.

The oil industries push for fuel cell won't work either, since it's tied to an even more expensive fuel and a requirement to drive to a 'pump' to buy more on a consistent basis. Unlike with a 200+ mile EV, all the power over 90% will need will come from the home charger.

But that's just how I see it....

 

[SP1966]

^^^^

Smaller players won't last, they'll just get bought out by the larger players.

 

[Bloggin]

^^^^

Smaller players won't last, they'll just get bought out by the larger players.

True, and Fords electrification plan was a smart one. Because they are able to offer whatever drive train the consumer wants, and not be heavily impacted by the oil industry power play. Which means for this to be successful, Ford will need to offer a gas, hybrid, plug-in hybrid and EV version of their most popular models. Because this oil war is not over by a long shot. As oil use continues to drop, oil companies will get more aggressive.

 

[2b2]

if Tesla's mission statement was to sell cars rather sell people on the idea of electrification;
maybe this could make a partnering more likely

Tesla rumor thread

It is easy, and pretty much required that established companies like Ford not put all their eggs in one basket while a newcomer like Tesla needs to have a focus, something that sets them apart from their established competitors. Like them or not they have had a larger impact on the market than any new auto brand has in decades.

As for their future, if gas prices were to remain this low they will likely be just another footnote in history, or more specifically, the next brand who's IP is purchased by the Chinese. Can't really blame them though, I don't think anybody really expected cheap gas again.

...hybrid/plug-in vehicle sales), hybrid sales have dropped by about 20%, but plug-in(that use Zero fuel some or all of the time) sales are up over 30%...

imho
primetime/state of the art = Plug-Ins ...(esp: V-Awd/E-wd!!)

I like lots of baskets as much as I like ""bigger boxes"" ("outside the box" in common parlance)
but
imho there's a difference between what belongs in the "skunk works" IN development
and what needs to be ON the dealers' lots

They won't last because the pricing is driven by a market grab by OPEC...

dunno exactly how much but I believe the US production increases are quite important re: US petrol prices

...The oil providers see the trend away from there core product...
...The oil industries push for fuel cell won't work either, since it's tied to an even more expensive fuel and a requirement to drive to a 'pump' to buy more on a consistent basis...

Petrol companies(execs) = EVIL

 

[paul8488]

Did anyone every buy a Tesla to save money on fuel?

 

[2b2]

Bank of America is predicting a massive Tesla collapse - yahoo
By Matthew DeBord | Business Insider – 11 hours ago

...John Lovallo, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, shook up Tesla bulls on Monday when he published a research note asking fundamental questions about the electric-car maker's prospects.

He also cut his price target to $65 from $70.

Tesla is trading at about $203 per share, a significant decline from its 2014 peak of $291, but a huge increase from the 2010 IPO price of $17.

For some time, Lovallo has been on the low end of analysts who cover Tesla. He's the biggest Tesla bear on Wall Street. Otherwise, opinion on the company is all over the place. Stifel Nicholas' James Albertine is the biggest bull, with a $400 price target. Other analysts are more cautious, with price targets in the ballpark of the stock's 2014 high. JP Morgan's Ryan Brinkman is the most cautious of the cautious set, with a target of $180.

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas is something of an outlier, with a juicy $280 price target but a complex thesis about Tesla. He thinks that it will remain more of a niche carmaker, not a mass-market brand — and to that end, he's skeptical about Tesla's ambitious growth prospects.

Given that Tesla missed on earnings expectations for its fourth quarter and was unable to deliver 1,400 cars (out of a total of 35,000) in 2014, all eyes are now focused on whether the company can justify its still lofty stock price and $26 billion market cap.

That's why Lovallo's bearishness is important. He's predicting a nearly 70% decline in Tesla's stock price...