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Margin is the name of the game. OTBE (other things being equal) the only thing profit shows about a company is that it is no longer expanding. You turn a profit when expansion no longer brings a reasonable return on investment. Margin, OTOH, is very important at it provides the structural information about whether a company will be profitable once capex ends. A Model S currently has a 25% margin, which trounces about everyone, and is targeted at 28% later this year, IIRC.

Model 3 obviously has much bigger issues. If Tesla was just about the Model S, they'd be golden, but they are making capital expenditures to grow quickly. They want to grab as much market and mind share as possible before legacy manufacturers get in the fray. They have to strike while they have the advantage. If they wait and do things the way of the old legacy manufacturers, no doubt it would result in a better end product, but they would lose their advantage. They have to operate this way if they stand a chance of surviving. Unfortunately at times they look like a monkey humping a football.
No need to explain the very simplistic margin formula to me, I am quite well versed in it. Net profit, to be a bit more specific, is what is missing from Tesla and clearly what I was referring to, and clearly what you skirted around when you started beating your chest about volumes. Would you care to continue that discussion? And yes, Musk is desperate to overcome considerable problems, problems typical of rapid expansion, especially for newbie companies. Problems btw, that Ford is quite well versed in. But forget Ford, it is that same industry that will trounce Tesla with what is quite simplistic technology, and certainly manufacturing, in BEV production.
Considering you keep harping on profit, you clearly do need an explanation as profit at this stage is meaningless. The only simplistic thinking is 'profit, profit, profit '. If want to have a real discussion, we can talk about all the issues Ford will run into downsizing that are just as bad or worse as Tesla's growth. The only question left is whether Ford adapts and moves forward or ends up like Kodak, and recognizes the shift too late. I'm also old enough to remember when Hyundai/Kia were the biggest POS garbage cars in the industry 20 years ago. Hubris is dangerous and often deadly in industry. I wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch.
 
Considering you keep harping on profit, you clearly do need an explanation as profit at this stage is meaningless. The only simplistic thinking is 'profit, profit, profit '. If want to have a real discussion, we can talk about all the issues Ford will run into downsizing that are just as bad or worse as Tesla's growth. The only question left is whether Ford adapts and moves forward or ends up like Kodak, and recognizes the shift too late. I'm also old enough to remember when Hyundai/Kia were the biggest POS garbage cars in the industry 20 years ago. Hubris is dangerous and often deadly in industry. I wouldn't count my chickens before they hatch.

My occasional slants against Tesla's lack of profits are typically, if not always, in the presence of repeated boasting of their nearly complete market share ownership and volumes. Lots of predictions about their longevity can and are made, that's fine. We all do it. But the only thing we know for certain is that the market will soon be flooded and Tesla will completely lose their upper hand. I am quite consistent on this subject.
 
No way anyone who drove an electric and an ICE back to back would pick the ICE, unless it was sold at a considerable discount. I expect that to be the case, which the opposite of what you're predicting. BEVs will cause ICE cars to drop precipitously in price as legacy manufacturers attempt to dismantle their legacy commitments with some semblance of order.

I see fans of BEV's say things like this all the time, but I don't get it. I've driven what many think is the premier BEV more than once, and while it was neat in some ways I have no idea why anybody would pick one over an ICE given the shortcomings. It does a few things that are kinda' neat, but the pricing is still extravagant and would be much more extravagant without truly significant subsidies. And yes, before somebody says it, the Model S is fast. There are fast gasoline-powered cars as well. Frankly, I don't understand the fascination.
 
My occasional slants against Tesla's lack of profits are typically, if not always, in the presence of repeated boasting of their nearly complete market share ownership and volumes. Lots of predictions about their longevity can and are made, that's fine. We all do it. But the only thing we know for certain is that the market will soon be flooded and Tesla will completely lose their upper hand. I am quite consistent on this subject.
If we look at how many angles Tesla is targeting with the EV market, it's going to be a long time before any of the 'older' automakers will catch up. Remember that Tesla is doing it all now with just one auto manufacturing plant and one battery plant. But the current plan is to build another battery plant and auto plant in China and in Europe. Importing of the RHD Model S and X is already happening, and the RHD Model 3 is coming later this year. The biggest headstart for Tesla is the Supercharger network that is already established in global major markets with aggressive efforts for expansion. Just like in the US, the plan is to build out Superchargers, then ramp up auto production in that market.

The other automakers coming after the EV market, may have 1 or 2 or 3 models on the way, but it is the charging infrastructure and autopilot, along with best in class crash safety along with model design that will keep Tesla ahead as others timidly 'enter' the market. With the biggest advantage for Tesla is that they don't have to protect their own ICE products/development costs/dealership interests/revenues, while at the same time slowly transition to EVs. Tesla can go all in on EVs and keep progressing.

BTW....those that shorted Tesla will have massive losses..

 

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I see fans of BEV's say things like this all the time, but I don't get it. I've driven what many think is the premier BEV more than once, and while it was neat in some ways I have no idea why anybody would pick one over an ICE given the shortcomings. It does a few things that are kinda' neat, but the pricing is still extravagant and would be much more extravagant without truly significant subsidies. And yes, before somebody says it, the Model S is fast. There are fast gasoline-powered cars as well. Frankly, I don't understand the fascination.
Just curious what you think the shortcomings are. Speed is pretty much the least important advantage a BEV has over ICE.
 
Just curious what you think the shortcomings are. Speed is pretty much the least important advantage a BEV has over ICE.
The only potential advantages I noticed were the instant torque and very quiet nature of the engine, both of which ICE engines can do well enough already. Considering that, in my experience, range is still a very real issue and that pricing, both current and future, is worrisome to put it mildly; count me as totally disinterested. I think BEV's are akin to driving aids like lane-departure warning and collision alert. A lot of hype about nothing of substance and more likely detrimental than an actual boon to their intended cause.

We would be enormously better off spending the money subsidizing this nonsense on better roadways and more realistic alternative fuels like ethanol or methanol replacing gasoline. Remember when diesel cars in Europe showed us 'the future' and Europeans would regularly gloat about the same? That is, until the obvious long-term problems diesel brought to the table were finally recognized and, now, Europe seemingly can't rid themselves of diesel engines fast enough. People are doing the same with the BEV and self-driving cars for reasons that don't pass any real sniff test, including the gloating. It's a manufactured problem with a contrived solution.

It's like we're desperate to prove that we're a moonshot generation even though we can't come up with anything worthy of a moonshot-like effort. So, we just made something up.
 
We should not under estimate the likes of GM, Ford and Toyota to sit back
like crocodiles until the time is right and just drop into mass production of EVs
like they are just another mass produced vehicle.


It's not the product or its ability to wow buyers, we know what EVs can do,
the real battle is being able to mass produce a profitable EV that has decent
range and can be recharged quickly all at a price the bulk of the market can afford.


As far as I can see, an affordable BEV is still a ways off but getting closer, the majors
like Ford are indicating what sort of battery they want before fully engaging the market
and IMO, there's still a lot of time to do that. The 3 will be a curiosity for now but ultimately
blase the trail for every other mass produced BEV to eclipse it ....and go further.
 
Any trip near or over 300 miles.
Range is relative. It all depends on the use of the vehicle that dictates how a long trip over 300 miles may impact the drive.

For example, with 90% of Americans commuting to work daily, with a round trip of less than 50 miles, a 200 or 300 mile EV is the best replacement vehicle. Especially with the 75% reduction in fuel costs, or about the equivalent of 4 gallons(about $20 in electricity) to travel 320 miles. Compared with the $60 to travel the same distance in an ICE vehicle. That's a $40 savings weekly on fuel costs or over $2,000 annually in savings on fuel alone. The fuel savings along could just about pay for the monthly lease of the EV. Then deduct the maintenance savings over 3 - 5 - 7 years of ownership and the EV can actually pay for itself in savings.

Now for those that travel over 300 miles on a regular basis, nothing much changes, because today, most have a smaller car as a daily commuter and a larger vehicle/SUV/Pick-up for longer trips. They would just keep the larger vehicle for longer trips, and replace the smaller daily commuter car/cuv with an EV and benefit from the fuel/maintenance savings, along with better drive-ability. Then there are those with the 300+ mile Tesla today that can charge at a Supercharger while having lunch, dinner or resting for the night before starting out in the morning. Driving an EV is a smarter drive than with an ICE vehicle, where the vehicle knows where it needs to charge and what route to take to makes sure it get there can based on the route/destination. The only way this gets messed up is if the human decides he/she knows better and tries to outthink technology...then it's on them. Thousands of people do 300+ mile trips every day in EVs.

However, those who only have the one large SUV/Pick-up, will just keep driving that and pay higher fuel prices, higher maintenance fees, along with annual emissions testing fees. But Ford is to offer a hybrid for that demographic to lower those costs. This is only until the larger vehicle transition to EV which has to happen.

So the only way a person could be 'concerned' about a 300 mile trip in an EV, would be if they just don't know enough about EVs in the first place...and for that consumer, an ICE vehicle is their best option.
 
Range is relative. It all depends on the use of the vehicle that dictates how a long trip over 300 miles may impact the drive.

For example, with 90% of Americans commuting to work daily, with a round trip of less than 50 miles, a 200 or 300 mile EV is the best replacement vehicle. Especially with the 75% reduction in fuel costs, or about the equivalent of 4 gallons(about $20 in electricity) to travel 320 miles. Compared with the $60 to travel the same distance in an ICE vehicle. That's a $40 savings weekly on fuel costs or over $2,000 annually in savings on fuel alone. The fuel savings along could just about pay for the monthly lease of the EV. Then deduct the maintenance savings over 3 - 5 - 7 years of ownership and the EV can actually pay for itself in savings.

Now for those that travel over 300 miles on a regular basis, nothing much changes, because today, most have a smaller car as a daily commuter and a larger vehicle/SUV/Pick-up for longer trips. They would just keep the larger vehicle for longer trips, and replace the smaller daily commuter car/cuv with an EV and benefit from the fuel/maintenance savings, along with better drive-ability. Then there are those with the 300+ mile Tesla today that can charge at a Supercharger while having lunch, dinner or resting for the night before starting out in the morning. Driving an EV is a smarter drive than with an ICE vehicle, where the vehicle knows where it needs to charge and what route to take to makes sure it get there can based on the route/destination. The only way this gets messed up is if the human decides he/she knows better and tries to outthink technology...then it's on them. Thousands of people do 300+ mile trips every day in EVs.

However, those who only have the one large SUV/Pick-up, will just keep driving that and pay higher fuel prices, higher maintenance fees, along with annual emissions testing fees. But Ford is to offer a hybrid for that demographic to lower those costs. This is only until the larger vehicle transition to EV which has to happen.

So the only way a person could be 'concerned' about a 300 mile trip in an EV, would be if they just don't know enough about EVs in the first place...and for that consumer, an ICE vehicle is their best option.
So basically BEVs are only good as commuter vehicles at this point in time. Don't get me wrong, I am a fan of Tesla......I think they will make all cars better.......whether they make it long term or not. I can't afford to buy a $70,000 commuter car plus something else that is capable of taking a trip......and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone in this. I'm sure BEVs are the future, but that's still at least a decade away. It's already been a decade since the first Tesla hit the street, and it will be another ten years before they can make an "everything" vehicle.......and I can't wait. Understanding an EV certainly isn't rocket science.........I took my dad to look at a Model S back when the car show was in town......thinking it would be perfect for someone retired.......but in a few days he's heading to Islamorada, Florida.......so that wouldn't work.

I hope you enjoy your Model 3 when it gets here.......cant wait to see the pics and read your reviews.
 
So basically BEVs are only good as commuter vehicles at this point in time. Don't get me wrong, I am a fan of Tesla......I think they will make all cars better.......whether they make it long term or not. I can't afford to buy a $70,000 commuter car plus something else that is capable of taking a trip......and I'm pretty sure I'm not alone in this. I'm sure BEVs are the future, but that's still at least a decade away. It's already been a decade since the first Tesla hit the street, and it will be another ten years before they can make an "everything" vehicle.......and I can't wait. Understanding an EV certainly isn't rocket science.........I took my dad to look at a Model S back when the car show was in town......thinking it would be perfect for someone retired.......but in a few days he's heading to Islamorada, Florida.......so that wouldn't work.

I hope you enjoy your Model 3 when it gets here.......cant wait to see the pics and read your reviews.
BEVs are good for much more than a commuter vehicle today, it's just some people are more challenged with charging along the route, at the same time points as an ICE vehicle than others. Understanding that it takes about 5 hours to travel 300 miles on freeways. At that point 'most' people will be ready for a break/meal or stay overnight, and this is with an ICE or BEV. The only difference is that with the BEV, the EV is charged while eating or at the hotel while sleeping. And ready to go the next morning. Same as going to a gas station and refueling the ICE car, ,and then eating or staying over at a hotel. All the major hotels have EV charging, along with many quick chargers along various routes.

It's just education that helps many to understand how a BEV actually works. But it does take a while, since early BEV adopters with over 200 miles of range, still become obsessed with looking for a charging station, when their round trip is less than 50 miles. Mostly it's just habit, and the rest may just be for attention, so others can see them charging their BEV.

And a 200+ mile BEV costs less than $40k. The benefit there is the ability to take about $2,000 that would be used to buy gas, can go toward paying the lease on the BEV. , and that $2,000 savings increases as gas prices increase. This is the math that BEV owners and automakers have already worked out. Ford shared this data when launching the Focus Electric, but when switching to a PHEV focus, they stopped talking about the BEV advantages over ICE, since ICE was their bread and butter and they were not ready to launch more BEVs.

Also, there are many other BEVs to choose from, Tesla is not the only manufacturer....but just offers some of the best product so far at a lower price. BTW...the Model 3 is dropping to $28k next year with production at 10k weekly.
 
BEVs are good for much more than a commuter vehicle today, it's just some people are more challenged with charging along the route, at the same time points as an ICE vehicle than others. Understanding that it takes about 5 hours to travel 300 miles on freeways. At that point 'most' people will be ready for a break/meal or stay overnight, and this is with an ICE or BEV. The only difference is that with the BEV, the EV is charged while eating or at the hotel while sleeping. And ready to go the next morning. Same as going to a gas station and refueling the ICE car, ,and then eating or staying over at a hotel. All the major hotels have EV charging, along with many quick chargers along various routes.

It's just education that helps many to understand how a BEV actually works. But it does take a while, since early BEV adopters with over 200 miles of range, still become obsessed with looking for a charging station, when their round trip is less than 50 miles. Mostly it's just habit, and the rest may just be for attention, so others can see them charging their BEV.

And a 200+ mile BEV costs less than $40k. The benefit there is the ability to take about $2,000 that would be used to buy gas, can go toward paying the lease on the BEV. , and that $2,000 savings increases as gas prices increase. This is the math that BEV owners and automakers have already worked out. Ford shared this data when launching the Focus Electric, but when switching to a PHEV focus, they stopped talking about the BEV advantages over ICE, since ICE was their bread and butter and they were not ready to launch more BEVs.

Also, there are many other BEVs to choose from, Tesla is not the only manufacturer....but just offers some of the best product so far at a lower price. BTW...the Model 3 is dropping to $28k next year with production at 10k weekly.

The current range of EVs and charging stations net only allows electric vehicles to be useful for city use or very short and planned trips. The rest is a lie.
 
BEVs are good for much more than a commuter vehicle today, it's just some people are more challenged with charging along the route, at the same time points as an ICE vehicle than others. Understanding that it takes about 5 hours to travel 300 miles on freeways. At that point 'most' people will be ready for a break/meal or stay overnight, and this is with an ICE or BEV. The only difference is that with the BEV, the EV is charged while eating or at the hotel while sleeping. And ready to go the next morning. Same as going to a gas station and refueling the ICE car, ,and then eating or staying over at a hotel. All the major hotels have EV charging, along with many quick chargers along various routes.

It's just education that helps many to understand how a BEV actually works. But it does take a while, since early BEV adopters with over 200 miles of range, still become obsessed with looking for a charging station, when their round trip is less than 50 miles. Mostly it's just habit, and the rest may just be for attention, so others can see them charging their BEV.

...

Also, there are many other BEVs to choose from, Tesla is not the only manufacturer....but just offers some of the best product so far at a lower price. BTW...the Model 3 is dropping to $28k next year with production at 10k weekly.
Have you ever been on a road trip? Usually you stop, get food and eat in the car, only occasionally stopping to sit down for a meal (that's usually only at night when you're stopping to sleep anyway). An EV having to charge for 30 mins eliminates that quick stop and go, meaning more time traveling.

Not only that, but I don't know where you live, but most hotels do NOT have charging capabilities yet. Some brand new ones maybe, but you have to take a much less efficient/longer route just to route through charging stations, again, meaning MORE time.

So no, it's nothing like stopping at a gas station that takes 5 minutes.

Also, you're delusional if you think Tesla is going to drop the price to $28K just because.
 
https://www.carscoops.com/2018/07/ford-electrification-boss-calls-focus-electric-compliance-car-thats-not-exciting/

Ford Electrification Boss Calls The Focus Electric A Compliance Car That’s “Not Too Exciting”

BY MICHAEL GAUTHIER | POSTED ONJULY 9, 2018


If you forgot that Ford makes the Focus Electric, you’re probably not alone.
While the model has been on sale for years, it never caught on with consumers and data shows the company has only sold 501 units in the United States through June. To put that number into perspective, Chevrolet managed to sell 1,161 Bolts last month alone.

There are a number of reasons why the Focus Electric isn’t flying off dealer lots and part of it is the car’s limited range. Thanks to a recent update, the model has an EPA-estimated driving range of 115 miles (185 km). That’s a big jump from the 76 mile (122 km) range on 2016 models, but it pales in comparison to newer electric vehicles such as the Bolt, Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3.

Despite being at a major competitive disadvantage, the Focus Electric starts at $29,120. That’s $870 less than the Leaf, but that model has a range of 151 miles (243 km).

Given the dismal sales figures, Ford has finally admitted the obvious. In a recent interview with Engadget, the company’s global director of electrification, Ted Cannis, seemingly referred to the model as a compliance car. That’s not exactly high praise, but Cannis said “there’s nothing wrong with [the] Ford Focus Electric” and stated it is “executed well.” However, he admitted it’s “not too exciting.”

That’s a bit of an understatement and Ford’s efforts to entice buyers have been somewhat laughable. Earlier this year, the company announced the 2018 Focus Electric would be offered in Outrageous Green Metallic which was described as a “unique shade, symbolizing modern renewal and a reconnection with nature.” Unsurprisingly, a new paint shade hasn’t caused a rash of Model 3 cancellations.

While the Focus Electric turned out to be a dud, the company has high hopes for the future. Cannis says the company’s upcoming EVs will be “awesome” and far more exciting than the Focus Electric.
 
EV Batteries of the Future Hit the Track

Brian Eckhouse
Photo credit: BLOOMBERG

The FIA Formula E racing series, pitting electricity-powered cars against each other, will end its season in Brooklyn this weekend.

The race will also serve as a retirement party for the initial generation of E-racing vehicles.

Starting next season, drivers will use sleek open-cockpit cars powered by much stronger batteries. The new vehicles, which bear a mild resemblance to the Batmobile, are capable of delivering a maximum power of 250 kilowatts (equivalent to roughly 335 HP) and reaching speeds of 174 miles per hour (280 km/h).

The improved battery means drivers will no longer have to swap cars midrace.

“That’s a big, big step,” said Nico Rosberg, a retired Formula 1 driver who’s now an investor in Formula E. “Battery performance is finally at a necessary level.”

Automakers have long used racing to nurture new consumer technology, and the Formula E series is no different. While battery-powered vehicles account for just 1.2 percent of auto sales worldwide, Bloomberg NEF predicts sales will jump almost tenfold by 2025 to about 11 million vehicles. To fuel that growth, manufacturers are going to have to convince consumers that battery-powered vehicles are just as reliable as the gasoline-powered cars they’d be replacing.

Read more....http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/storyimage/CA/20180713/OEM05/180719884/AR/0/AR-180719884.jpg
 
It seems the next gen FIA Formula E racing series is a bit behind the battery tech and power that Tesla is offering today...but still race ready.

Tesla Model S Electric GT car ready to race
https://www.motorauthority.com/news...electric-gt-car-ready-to-race#image=100656723

"The race car is called the EPCS V2.3 Tesla S P100DL, and thanks to an uprated powertrain and less weight is able to reach 62 mph in just 2.1 seconds and top out at 155 mph. In comparison, a regular Model S P100D with Ludicrous mode does 0-60 mph in about 2.5 seconds. According to Electric GT, the all-wheel-drive race car is packing as much as 778 horsepower and 733 pound-feet of torque."
 
Regarding the origin article of this thread, hybrids are actually a huge part of the performance story for many Fords arriving post 2020, just like EcoBoost. Ford is taking Hybrid performance from expensive niche luxury tech to higher volume core products with even better performance and reliability. Their Hybrid business is absolutely brilliant, I don't see anything else quite like it on the horizon from others but we'll see.

As for their BEVs...Ford isn't that enthusiastic bout them until Solid State Batteries make them cheaper and more reliable, but Mach1 is very much intended to be a well balanced and faster than average vehicle like all Fords. I think Farley got a little carried away with the Mach1 rebranding (originally know as C-EV inside Ford) but they are taking a page from Elon Musk's playbook to drum up investor excitement. Farley gets a little clumsy when they are under pressure and this is one of those things.

Ford's contribution to NG Li-ion is to make the battery components modular so they can swap out parts of the batteries and not the entire sled which effectively totals the car. Right now Ford's battery supplier is LG Chem out of Holland Michigan. Ford is working exclusively with LG Chem on solid state batteries but I think it's safe to assume they won't be the first to have them in their products.

There's no getting around that Ford is going to be very absent from the BEV market for nearly 3 years and that's going to get annoying to investors so I hope they at least show off the Mach1 sooner than later. Mach 1 is arriving late 2021 but Ford's huge Hybrid rollout will be happening in the interim.

My advice is that if you're waiting on a Ford Tesla...it will come eventually but FAR later than you hoped..but it's not like we won't have smart transitional products...many of which may have no equal. Ford is staying out of the early BEV market for very specific reasons, they want to make it right and we should trust them to do so, they certainly can't afford to get it wrong. Ford is not intentionally or unintentionally missing the mark, they know what it is and how long it will take to get there. And by the time they do get here, you will have forgotten that time you criticized Ford's absence. I think Ford deserves credit for not doing the obvious thing all the time, otherwise this would be a pretty boring company with nothing to contribute. The BEV market still needs to take a major leap from enthusiastic early adopters to mainstream volume products which is Ford's customer. That's a bigger challenge than just making the car affordable, you have to satisfy a customer that wasn't already convinced and committed to the lifestyle in the first place.
 
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