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Air quality is the predominant reason behind Schlicht’s prediction of falling sales for diesels. With society becoming increasingly health-conscious and a growing urban population, he believes that governments will be forced to clamp down on nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions.

“The effect of diesel emissions is practically non-existent in cities like Tokyo or Nagoya when compared to Paris or Brussels,” he describes. “Europe’s entire society has been built on cheap diesel, and it’s going to be hard to shake. But we are currently seeing the beginning of a change that will see diesel vehicles, particularly the older models, taken off the streets.” With certain cities banning diesel vehicles, Schlicht thinks there will be opportunity for hybrids to take market share.

He also refers to the incentives in Paris that started in April 2015, with the local government giving residents up to €10,000 (US$11,385) to replace an old diesel vehicle with an electric vehicle (EV) or hybrid electric vehicle (HEV): “We’re not actively requesting this type of incentive, and we’re not building our portfolio towards them as they don’t often last long. We’re asking for clear targets and a level playing field for technology.”

However, he admits that incentives like those in place in Paris “do help us with our hybrid strategy,” concluding: “They could go a long way in aiding the increased adoption of clean vehicles in place of those that are causing significant problems.”


http://www.automotiveworld.com/analysis/toyota-says-diesels-days-numbered-hybrids-succeed/
 

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Current hybrid gas engines are about 33-37% thermally efficient. Toyota’s new Prius is at 40% and the industry is gearing up for 45% BTE. Diesel will soon make little sense. And given the recent backlash of these dirty oil burners, I just don’t see a popular future. Combined with advances in hybrid tech and battery tech and even weight reduction, we can expect significant improvements in efficiency. Even the torque gains from electric motors displaces some of the few benefits of current Diesel.

Diesel has it’s benefits over current gas and even hybrid, but eventually, that will only be very application specific.
 
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